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There are no signals at the moment that fuel deliveries from Belarus will stop: expert

28 August 2020

Presently, Ukraine has sufficient fuel stocks and is able to diversify deliveries

Despite the statements by certain Belarusian enterprises that they may join the nationwide strike, there are no signals at the moment that fuel deliveries from Belarus will stop, DiXi Group Research Director Roman Nitsovych said in a commentary to

“Presently, workers of certain Belarusian enterprises consider going on strike. Speaking about oil refineries whose products are imported to Ukraine, Belarus has two oil refineries: Naftan (Novopolotsk, Vitebsk Oblast) and in Mazyr (Gomel Oblast). Naftan workers have indeed collected signatures, and may go on strike on 29 August. As for Mazyr Oil Refinery, there were no reports of this sort, save for the one about the initiative of one of its departments to join the strike. For the time being, these intentions have no effect whatsoever on the situation with fuel deliveries to Ukraine,” Mr. Nitsovych said.

According to the expert, the events in Belarus affect the sentiments of traders, causing certain unease. But for the time being, there are no signals that deliveries will stop.

“The Ukrainian market still has a certain surplus of fuel, especially diesel fuel. In other words, the chains selling fuel have certain stocks which, probably, could help mitigate the impact if Belarusian enterprises will indeed join the strike and that will somehow affect the deliveries. But at the moment, I see no significant preconditions for the situation to exacerbate up to the shutdown of enterprises, because oil refineries have certain technological specifics making it hard to stop the production process,” the expert stressed.

In addition, if imports are halted from one direction, Ukraine has the option of switching to imports from other directions, such as EU states, because the petroleum products market in Ukraine is open.

“It surely can affect prices, in which case, they will rise. But in the end, the market will balance itself out, and prices could quite possibly revert to the previous figures,” Mr. Nitsovych added.

As reported earlier by Ukrainian Energy, A-95 Consulting Group CEO Serhii Kuiun expressed opinion that there are no threats to stable operation of Belarusian oil refineries.

“Whatever happens to deliveries from Belarus, the biggest impact it can produce upon us is a temporary, two- or three-week-long turbulence. Not shortage, not a sharp price hike, but a temporary destabilization, and even that is far from certain,” Mr. Kuiun said.

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