For Ukraine, it became an international platform for discussing the environmental challenges caused by Russian aggression, the impact of war on the environment, the presentation of "green" recovery projects, as well as new opportunities for attracting financing.

For the third time in a row, despite the full-scale war, the country deployed a national pavilion at the COP. Its official slogan was "Ukraine - a reliable partner that fulfills its obligations." The main idea was not only to attract the attention of numerous guests of the COP to a country that, due to the war, needs comprehensive support and at the same time retains the ability to be a reliable partner for investments, keeps its commitments and strives for integration with the EU.

Therefore, numerous speeches were organized in the Ukrainian pavilion, which spoke about the achievements made in the conditions of war. In particular, the approval of the National Energy and Climate Plan, the Framework Law on Climate Policy, the spread of environmentally friendly developments by Ukrainian startups, the commitment to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, implemented in legislation.

To understand the results of COP29 in more detail, Ukrainian Energy spoke with the participants of the discussions in the Ukrainian pavilion and informed them about the main conclusions of this international event, opportunities for Ukrainian business in the field of climate finance, as well as expectations from the upcoming COP30, which will be held in Brazil next year.

The evolution of climate discussions

“In the 29 years since the first UN conference was held, which launched the fight against global warming, COP events have become something more than just a forum for dry, technical negotiations. Now they are a platform for international unity,” said Svitlana Hrynchuk, Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine.

According to her, military actions destroy not only cities and infrastructure, but also cause large-scale pollution of soil, water resources and air, destruction of forests and protected areas. Referring to the latest estimates, the minister estimated the environmental damage caused to Ukraine by Russian aggression at $71 billion.

The aforementioned amount, which already amounts to tens of billions of dollars, does not take into account the long-term climate consequences of the war, which are not limited to the borders of Ukraine alone and have a global impact. They are associated with significant greenhouse gas emissions, and have already exceeded the volumes comparable to the emissions of such a powerful industrial country as the Netherlands. And this is not the limit. Therefore, Ukraine called on the international community to support the "green" recovery of its economy and take into account the environmental aspect in post-war reconstruction.

"Our team actively defended issues related to the legalization of the occupation of Ukrainian territory by the Russian Federation, as well as the methodology for calculating greenhouse gas emissions from military conflicts. In most of the texts agreed upon at COP29, we managed to protect the amendments that suit us," Oleksiy Ryabchyn, a participant in the COP29 negotiations and advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration of Ukraine, Olga Stefanyshyna, told Ukrainska Energetika.

Finance for new projects

The representative of the Ukrainian official delegation, Mykhailo Chyzhenko, considers

This year's UN climate conference to be one of the most successful since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015.

According to him, the negotiations in Baku were “very difficult”, so from the beginning of the event he was “quite skeptical”. “But now, after seven years of negotiations, we finally have a closed issue on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement”, the expert noted.

This article concerns carbon trading. It creates conditions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to become not only a necessary thing for business, but also beneficial. In particular, the approval of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement at the UN level, which took place in Baku, will allow companies to implement joint decarbonization projects with Japan and Switzerland, which will become a source of green investment in reconstruction. Next year, Ukraine aims to launch a national CO2 emissions trading system in pilot mode, which should be fully operational in 10-12 years and integrated with a similar EU trading platform.

But in general, Mykhailo Chyzhenko considers the legacy of COP29 “debatable”. After heated arguments, international delegations managed to agree on financing for developing countries. “We agreed on $300 billion per year - private and public funds. But it was a very difficult debate, during which the goal changed every half hour,” the expert said. However, not all countries perceived this amount of financing as sufficient to confront the challenges of global warming.

“The decision was a compromise that allows us to move forward. The goal, although not perfect, is an important step forward, because its absence would be an even worse option,” explained Oleksiy Ryabchyn, drawing on his extensive experience in participating in the international negotiation process on climate change.

He also emphasized that in order for Ukraine to be able to increase the volume of international support for programs that take into account the green component, the country needs to increase transparency in reporting on carbon emissions reductions, increase installed renewable energy capacity, and create new jobs in this area.

Fulfilling these conditions will allow Ukraine to fully benefit from its unique positioning. On the one hand, the country is part of the Umbrella negotiating group together with the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and other developed countries that finance climate initiatives. “Russia and Belarus were excluded from this group in 2022,” Oleksiy Ryabchin recalled. On the other hand, Ukraine’s GDP size corresponds to that of developing countries. Therefore, Ukraine is also a recipient of funding, the amount of which is determined by a group of world leaders.

Climate Investments for Fossil Fuels

Green financing for Ukraine can ensure not only the development of renewable energy projects, but also the modernization of the fossil fuel industry. In particular, the gas industry, the existence of which is associated with methane and its emissions. This greenhouse gas is a basic component of natural gas. Experts from the International Energy Agency consider the elimination of its leaks to be the most effective, fast and economically sound solution that will stop global warming.

At COP29, the presentation of the first results of a study of methane emissions in the fossil fuel sector of Ukraine, organized by the DiXi Group analytical center, took place.

Roman Nitsovych, head of research programs at DiXi Group, said in a comment for Ukrainian Energy that this event was held to tell at the international level about the responsible attitude of Ukrainian extractive companies to business in wartime and to show their potential in attracting climate financing to develop production and increase efficiency.

“In studying such an aggressive greenhouse gas as methane, we pay attention to high-quality measurements and the search for technological solutions to reduce its emissions,” Roman Nitsovych noted.

Preliminary results, based on satellite and calculation data, have shown that in Ukraine, methane emissions in the oil and gas industry are perhaps the lowest on the continent. The country is significantly ahead of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, the United Kingdom, and especially Russia. “Russia is generally irresponsible about emissions, the volumes there are sky-high. Therefore, the impact on the climate is huge,” Roman Nitsovych noted.

In addition to the current low methane values, Ukrainian companies “have good opportunities to further reduce them, continuing the policy of using natural gas as a transitional fuel.”

Another trend from the DiXi Group study also attracts attention: Ukraine will be able to increase gas production in the medium term and at the same time reduce methane emissions.

Such, at first glance, paradoxical forecast can become a reality under three conditions: modernization of production, development of new fields, attraction of modern equipment and technological innovations.

This will create conditions for Ukraine to realize its post-war ambitions to be among the leaders in gas production in Europe and its exporters. Gas resources will also be in demand on the domestic market: in the production of nitrogen fertilizers for farmers and for gas generation, which will ensure the reliable operation of the energy system based on renewable energy.

DiXi Group plans to use the first results of its research to create a roadmap of environmental solutions for the Ukrainian oil and gas industry. Its presentation to stakeholders is scheduled for December.

Future prospects of the CPR

The escalation in the large-scale war that Russia has launched against Ukraine in recent weeks does not contribute to solving the climate problems that the world community is facing. However, Kyiv is already making plans for the upcoming climate conference of the parties, which will celebrate its 30th anniversary next year. COP30 will be held for the first time in Brazil - in the Amazon region, which attracts attention as an important ecosystem of the Earth.

“I perceived everything that happened in Baku as a preparatory stage for more significant decisions,” - shared his expectations Oleksiy Ryabchyn.

“It will be difficult, if only because it is a different continent,” - noted Viktoriya Kyreyeva, Deputy Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine. But most importantly, she said, “we plan to present concrete achievements, concrete examples of how Ukraine is moving towards climate neutrality at the next conference.”

Svitlana Dolinchuk, specially for "Ukrainian Energy"