Gas transit: consequences of the meeting between Shmyhal and Fico
On September 7, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal met with his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico, known for his active pro-Russian position, in Uzhhorod.
"Ukrainian Energy" found out how such a meeting will turn out for Ukraine in the future.
Peace formula, joining the EU and energy security
Not against the EU, but against NATO
This is how the Slovak press described the beginning of Fico's visit: "One of the most resonant quotes on the eve of this meeting were the words of Robert Fico: "Although we have different views, there is some chemistry between us." The prime minister of Slovakia did not hesitate to talk about a special level of understanding with his Ukrainian counterpart, despite the political disputes that sometimes escalate at the level of relations between the two countries. Perhaps it is this "chemistry" that allows them to find compromises even in the most pressing issues."
The meeting itself turned out to be full of political contrasts, frank confessions and only outlined strategic steps for the future.
During intergovernmental consultations in Uzhhorod, Fico stated that they are not against Ukraine's accession to the EU, but they are cold towards its membership in NATO.
"We will not prevent Ukraine's membership in the EU.There will be countries that will be against Ukraine quickly becoming a member of the European Union. I say this openly and clearly. We want to provide you with our experience of joining... But we have a rather cold attitude towards Ukraine's membership in NATO, although we will participate in all conferences," he emphasized.
"It should be understood that these words are aimed primarily at the Slovak voter, who is largely inclined to pro-Russian narratives. They also reflect the political balance that Slovakia is trying to maintain in a difficult international situation," the Slovak press described this statement.
Fico also expressed his support for all peace plans of Ukraine and the Peace Formula of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. According to him, Slovakia is interested in the restoration of Ukraine and good neighborly relations.
"We understand that this peace must be of high quality and sustainable for you. You must have security guarantees. We will support all initiatives to achieve this goal," the Slovak Prime Minister noted.
The Slovak prime minister also announced the preparation of a new package of financial assistance to Ukraine and the readiness of the Slovak government to provide military assistance, but it will be a non-lethal weapon.
"We want Ukraine to winter well. Also, if necessary, we are ready to provide electricity," Fitso concluded.
In turn, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal emphasized that they reached an agreement on completing work on eight bilateral documents, in particular, on joint control at checkpoints. According to him, they are planned to be signed before the end of the year. In addition, Ukraine and Slovakia have started joint work on the creation of a powerful energy hub, which will strengthen the energy security not only of these two countries, but also of the entire Eastern European region, Denys Shmyhal said.The fact that 155-mm shells for Ukraine will be produced on the territory of Slovakia was also good news.
It is clear from everything that the Slovak prime minister did not arrive empty-handed - many deals and agreements between neighboring countries were reached.
Key message
It is obvious that Robert Fitso came to Ukraine for a reason. However, the key message that the official Bratislava would have liked to hear was not heard. Even on the contrary. Denys Shmyhal stated during a joint press conference that Kyiv will not extend the agreement with Russia on gas transit through the Ukrainian gas transport system after its expiration
"The strategic goal of Ukraine is to impose sanctions on the Russian gas molecule, to deprive the Kremlin of profits from the sale of hydrocarbons, for which the aggressor finances the war. We call on all European countries to completely abandon oil and gas from the Russian Federation," the head of the Ukrainian government emphasized.
He noted that the Ukrainian authorities understand the acute dependence of some countries, in particular Slovakia, on this resource, but they count on the gradual diversification of supplies.
"At the same time, Ukraine is ready to continue fulfilling its obligations in accordance with the Association Agreement with the European Union and the Energy Charter," Shmyhal assured.
The transit agreement is valid until the end of the current year. That is why Fitso came to Transcarpathia urgently and not empty-handed.
Dependent Bratislava
According to the Slovak Security Policy Institute (SSPI) and the Strategic Policy Institute Stratpol, a third of Slovaks have a fairly positive attitude towards Russia. Slovak propaganda actively repeats the messages of the Kremlin, despite the fact that official Bratislava accepts refugees from Ukraine, and Slovak society collects funds for the purchase of weapons for the armed forces. It is safe to say that Slovak society is quite heterogeneous in terms of Russian narratives.
For example, these days, 122 tons of ammunition were delivered to Ukraine, for which the citizens of Slovakia collected more than 4 million euros. Another 500,000 will buy ammunition for grenade launchers. This was reported by the Slovak media resource Noviny on October 7.
The initiator of the collection, Fedir Blaszczak, said that the "Ammunition for Ukraine" campaign was announced after the Slovak government announced that it would not join the Czech initiative to collect ammunition for Ukraine.
He noted that, taking into account the population, Slovakia contributed more to the military needs of Ukraine than Canada, Iceland or Slovenia.
Slovakia's dependence on Russian imported oil products is quite strong. Bratislava receives 85% of its gas and 66% of its oil from the Russian Federation. And Moody's rating agency considers the country's economic growth to be stable. Therefore, the transit of Russian energy carriers is extremely important for Slovakia.
Interestingly, at the beginning of 2024, Fico also had a meeting with Denys Shmyhal in Zakarpattia. And he said at the same time that Slovakia and Ukraine reached a preliminary agreement on the continuation of the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory to the countries of the European Union (EU) in 2025.
"There was an agreement that it is possible to continue the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine to Europe. This is outstanding news. This means that we, in Slovakia, will also have the opportunity to continue the transit of this gas, which will be used not only by enterprises in Slovakia, but also in Austria and Italy," said the head of the Slovak government.
However, by the end of the year, the Ukrainian authorities changed their decision, which greatly upset Slovakia.
Currently, Robert Fico is forced to balance between the internal pro-Russian mood of the voters, the geopolitical ambitions and speculations of the Kremlin and the realities of international politics, in which the support of Ukraine is important for stability in the region. And also - to think about replacing Russian energy carriers. However, the dilemma of his colleague Denys Shmyhal is bigger – because there is a war going on in his country.
