The European Union has agreed on the 18th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, which diplomats have already described as “one of the toughest.” The dpa agency reports this with reference to several representatives of the member states.

How this will affect Ukraine and its main enemy – Russia, has been found out by “Ukrainian Energy”

A blow to the Kremlin’s wallet

According to the new head of European diplomacy, Kaia Kallas, this package is designed to “strike a blow to the Kremlin’s wallet, block ways to circumvent restrictions and strengthen responsibility for war crimes.” In particular, it provides for a reduction in the price limit for Russian oil, which is currently $60 per barrel, and according to Reuters, the new limit will be reduced to $47.6.

The largest Indian oil refinery, which works with Russian raw materials from Rosneft, will also fall under the sanctions. In addition to energy restrictions, the sanctions include personal measures against officials and organizations involved in the ideological indoctrination of Ukrainian children. Kallas also noted in her comments to dpa that the EU has blocked access to critical technologies used in the production of drones and has put pressure on Chinese banks that help circumvent restrictions.

A significant block of the initiative concerns the financial sector. According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, Kaspar Veldkam, the sanctions provide for a complete ban on SWIFT for another 22 Russian banks, as well as a de facto ban on all transactions carried out through operators in third countries. Separately, access to European capital will be blocked and secondary sanctions will be imposed against financial institutions in China and the Middle East. The sanctions will also affect maritime logistics - 105 vessels of the Russian "shadow fleet" have been added to the list of restrictions. For the first time, European officials are creating a single register of flags, which will allow for more effective tracking of the movement of sanctioned ships. In the high-tech segment, the export of European components that can be used for drones and radio-electronic systems is completely prohibited, with strict control over resale through third countries.

The Office of the President of Ukraine also reported that a number of proposals from the Ukrainian sanctions group have been taken into account. As Andriy Yermak emphasized, these include a ban on transactions related to Nord Stream 1 and 2, a complete ban on the import of petroleum products from Russian oil, as well as sanctions against the Russian Direct Investment Fund, which directly strikes at the interests of Russian elites. The total volume of export restrictions has reached more than €2.5 billion - critical industrial goods and technologies will no longer enter the Russian Federation. The sanctions also apply to 22 companies - both Russian and foreign - that directly support Russia's military-industrial complex.

The controversy over the sanctions package arose from Slovakia over the European Commission’s proposal to completely ban Russian gas imports from 2028. Bratislava feared shortages, rising prices and the risk of lawsuits from Gazprom. However, on July 17, Prime Minister Robert Fico announced a compromise after talks with Ursula von der Leyen, who provided guarantees regarding the stability of gas supplies.

The sanctions package will enter into force after official approval and will be in effect until July 2026 with the possibility of extension. The European Commission is already preparing a separate system for monitoring the circumvention of oil and gas restrictions through third countries. In the absence of changes in Russian policy, a complete ban on maritime transportation of Russian oil may be introduced in 2026. Thus, the EU is demonstrating its readiness for further pressure, combining financial, technical and human rights mechanisms of influence.

Putin is ready to fight further

Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to three sources close to the Kremlin, continues to adhere to his firm intention to wage war in Ukraine until the West recognizes his terms for a peaceful settlement. This is reported by Reuters, noting that even new tough sanctions proposed by US President Donald Trump do not change the position of the Russian leadership.

The agency's interlocutors believe that the Russian economy and army are in a state that allows them to withstand increased sanctions - in particular, customs restrictions on imports from countries that purchase Russian energy resources. One of the Reuters sources claims: "Putin is convinced that none of the parties, including the United States, is conducting serious peace negotiations with him. Therefore, he will continue to act until he gets what he wants." It is noted that despite personal contacts with Donald Trump, including telephone conversations and visits by special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow, the Russian president does not see any real willingness to discuss his conditions.

Among the key demands voiced by the Russian side are legal guarantees of non-expansion of NATO, neutral status of Ukraine, protection of the rights of the Russian-speaking population and recognition of the five annexed regions as part of the Russian Federation. At the same time, according to Reuters, Putin admits the possibility of discussing security guarantees for Ukraine.

The agency's sources also indicate that Putin sees Russia's military advantage in the current configuration of the front, which could provoke new offensive actions. One of the interlocutors says that "appetite comes during the battle", hinting at the readiness for expansion - in particular in the direction of the Dnieper, Sumy and Kharkiv, if Ukrainian forces do not offer decisive resistance. Another source notes that the nature of further actions will depend on the strength of Ukrainian defense: serious confrontation can stop the offensive, and weak resistance - stimulate it.

In the context of the US political reaction, it is worth mentioning Donald Trump's statement made on July 14. The US President promised to provide Kyiv with additional military support and threatened Russia with new tariffs - this refers to the potential introduction of 100 percent duties on exports to the States, starting in September. The initiative concerns not only Russia (its exports to the US are insignificant), but also its trading partners, in particular those who continue to buy oil. Representatives of the Trump administration have clarified that this concerns buyers of Russian energy resources.

Analysts compare the new initiative with the tougher bill of Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, which provides for 500 percent tariffs for countries cooperating with Russia in the energy sector.

A theatrical ultimatum?

As Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center, explains, Trump is actually repeating the mechanism of the bill of Senators Graham and Blumenthal, only in a softened version - tariffs of one hundred percent instead of five hundred. He notes that the threat could affect China, India, Turkey, even Hungary and Slovakia - countries that import Russian oil. “Logically, this would mean 100% tariffs on all imports from China, India and Turkey,” says Vakulenko, but adds that economically the US “could not withstand” such a blow to its own consumers.

This mechanism exposes another problem – there are no options in the world to replace Russian oil volumes in the short term. In addition to OPEC+, other suppliers will need years to increase production, and there is only optimism about the capacity reserve. In May, for example, Saudi Arabia proved unable to quickly increase supplies, despite its declared reserves.

A significant side effect would be an increase in the price of energy resources. According to CapitalEconomics analysts, 100% tariffs could cause a jump in world prices, especially for gas, and the complication of access to the so-called “shadow fleet” would negatively affect oil supply chains.

Economists and market players doubt the effectiveness of such an initiative: markets have called Trump's threats a "bluff", as Brent prices have fallen after the statements - investors expect tariffs to be introduced only if this does not lead to inflation in the United States, Reuters reports.

AP analyst Douglas Irwin believes that "unilateral tariffs are unlikely to affect Putin", while economists from the Fraser Institute and the Peterson Institute warn that such actions could hit relations with China and India, which are key US trading partners.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities are mostly positive about the initiative. Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak suggested that such a policy "could force Putin to seek peace", and called Trump a potential driver of ending the war by the end of 2025.

The Russians are reacting with irony and calm: Dmitry Peskov called Trump's statement a "theatrical ultimatum," and former President Dmitry Medvedev and Minister Novak assured that the Russian economy is able to withstand such a load. Most Russian observers believe that blackmail statements do not work.

Geopolitical risks

Amidst the decline in export revenues and the increase in spending on the war against Ukraine, the Russian budget is rapidly losing its stability. According to official data, in the first half of 2025 alone, the federal budget deficit reached 3.7 trillion rubles - six times more than in the same period in 2024.

This gap in finances arises against the background of almost exhausted reserves - most of the "peaceful" social articles have already been cut to a minimum. Pension payments, healthcare, infrastructure projects are under threat. There is practically nothing left to cut further.

In such a situation, the Kremlin will activate its main remaining tool - the emission of money. According to forecasts, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation plans to put into circulation an additional 15 trillion rubles by October. This means that the risk of hyperinflation is becoming not hypothetical, but quite real. The cost of war for Russia is growing not only in military terms, but also in economic terms - astronomically.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom is considering the possibility of joining the initiative proposed by Donald Trump. This is a scheme under which US allies buy American weapons and transfer them to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is reported by Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the negotiations.

At this stage, the consultations are in the early stages, and a final decision in London has not yet been made. But Prime Minister Keir Starmer has already hinted at a willingness to follow the example of Germany, which has announced its intention to purchase two Patriot air defense systems and a medium-range Typhon system from the United States for transfer to Ukraine.

"We are looking together with our partners for ways to effectively help Ukraine," Starmer said at a press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Merz, in turn, clarified that the German Ministry of Defense is already working on the issue of supply logistics, and that the installation of such systems is a matter of days or even weeks.

France, Italy and the Czech Republic have so far refused to join this model. In Paris, they are betting on weapons from European manufacturers, and Prague, according to Prime Minister Petr Fiala, on alternative assistance in the form of ammunition.

This double pressure - on the one hand, Western weapons, on the other - financial instability - is shaping a new reality for Russia. War is becoming not only a geopolitical risk, but also a factor of economic self-destruction.

Immunity and consequences

“The European Union has agreed on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia. The ceiling for Russian oil prices has been lowered to $47.6 per barrel. What will this lead to? $47.6 is a figure close to the cost of production and transportation for many Russian projects. The cost of production in old, light deposits in Western Siberia is about $15-25 per barrel. But in new, complex, Arctic or offshore projects, taking into account all taxes (PDPD, export duty) and logistics, the full cost for oil companies reaches $40-45 and above. As a result, many Russian oil companies will find themselves on the verge of profitability or become unprofitable. The Kremlin has three bad options:  Reduce taxes on oil companies so that they don’t go bankrupt. But this is a direct blow to budget revenues. Let me remind you that initially the budget included $69.7 per barrel. Then the forecast was lowered to $56 per barrel. And here is a new blow. This is very painful. The second option is to force companies to sell at a loss to maintain the flow of foreign exchange into the country. This will lead to the complete degradation of the oil industry - the more you extract, the more you have. In the long run, production will begin to fall by itself due to equipment wear and tear and the lack of Western technologies. And the third option is to reduce production, while stopping the least profitable wells. This will sharply reduce exports and revenues,” says analyst Roman Sirotin.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin will analyze the 18th package of EU sanctions to minimize its consequences. The Russian Federation has long adapted to restrictive measures. This is what the Russian media writes about.

“Of course, it is necessary to analyze the new package in order to minimize its consequences. At the same time, of course, we have already gained some immunity from sanctions, we have adapted to life under sanctions,” the spokesman said.

The new package of sanctions allegedly “adds a negative effect to the very countries that join it, it is a double-edged sword,” Peskov said, adding that the Kremlin, as before, considers unilateral sanctions to be allegedly illegal.

Olena Marchenko, specially for “Ukrainian Energy”