The attack by the Russian forces on November 17 again fell on several thermal and hydropower facilities, as well as on Ukrenergo facilities. In winter, renewable energy generation decreases, and hydropower generation is critically dependent on water resources, which are in short supply this year due to the dry summer and autumn. Even after partial restoration of equipment, the situation will be difficult due to high winter demand.

This was discussed at the presentation of a study conducted by the DiXi Group analytical center.

Experts also presented risks and possible scenarios for the autumn-winter period. All assessments were made taking into account information from open sources.

The main threats to the energy system in winter:

- intensive Russian attacks on energy infrastructure;

- weather;

- shortage of hydro resources;

- seasonal reduction in renewable energy generation by 40-70%;

- high winter demand, which can reach 19 GW.

The electricity market in Ukraine is working, and this is an important achievement. However, there are price caps (price restrictions) that may hinder the attraction of maximum import volumes, which will be critical in a cold winter.

If there is a generation deficit in the markets of neighboring countries, importing the necessary volumes will be problematic.

So DiXi Group experts created several scenarios and electricity balances to predict potential shortages. The scenarios include different temperature regimes and probabilities of attacks from Russia.

The baseline scenario is cautiously optimistic. It assumes no new attacks on the power system and moderate temperatures. In this case, a deficit of up to 2 GW is expected due to seasonal demand growth. An additional challenge may be the restriction of commercial imports due to high demand in European countries. Hourly outage schedules and consumption reduction measures may be required to balance the power system.

"If we manage to restore thermal generation or hydropower plants, they will be able to provide more power and the deficit will be minimal. Then we come to a positive forecast, when power outages will only occur in the evening hours, and they will not be long, that is, 3-4 hours during the most scarce hours of the day," said Olena Lapenko, General Manager for Security and Sustainability at DiXi Group.

The “cold weather” scenario assumes that there will be no new power outages, but the average daily temperature will fall below normal. This could lead to an increase in electricity consumption and a deficit of up to 3.4 GW, and in the absence of imports or unstable operation of renewable generation – up to 5 GW. The International Energy Agency predicts a maximum consumption of 18.5 GW. In this case, it will be necessary to apply strict capacity limitation schedules and hourly outages.

The worst-case scenario, with moderate temperatures, involves new attacks on thermal power plants and other generation facilities. This scenario does not predict as large a deficit as in severe frosts, but the risks to the power system will be higher than in previous scenarios. In such conditions, emergency outage schedules will have to be used to prevent overloading the network.

"During the hours of minimum load (at night and during the day on a sunny day) according to the first and third scenarios, we reach zero, that is, we predict that we will not have a deficit with imports. But if it is very cold - frosts of 10-15 degrees - then even during the hours of minimum load there will be a deficit, which can be covered by additional, for example, emergency assistance or simply outage schedules will operate not only in the evening, but also at night," noted Ms. Lapenko.

As "Ukrainian Energy" reported, the Ministry of Energy is studying additional opportunities to encourage electricity imports, where the key factors are the availability of electricity and the possibility of crossing at the right hours.

Author: Надія Зінченко