These days, the European Union confirmed the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, which became the largest in the entire hour of the full-scale war. New restrictions put pressure on the Russian economy by cutting off access to critical military technologies, changing nafta revenues and destroying the “dark fleet” of tankers, and undertakings to circumvent sanctions.

Another 189 ships have been added to the black list to transport Russian naphtha - now the number of such sanctioned ships has grown to 342. They will no longer be able to procure ports and services in the EU. The sanctions also affected companies that provide transportation services, including shipping companies from the UAE, Turkey, Hong Kong and one of the great Russian insurers. Their assets will be frozen and their financial transactions will be blocked.

Due to advance approaches and the established price structure, Russia has already spent €38 billion in nafta revenues. In the spring of 2025, profits from naphtha were 13.7% lower, lower prices.

Besides the energy industry, there are new sanctions on the Russian military-industrial complex. The list includes the company "Surgutnaftogaz" and about 45 other companies that provide the Russian army with drones, armor, ammunition and components for equipment. Sanctions were also imposed on countries from Russia, China, Belarus, Israel and other countries, which help with the development of military technology - the closure of machines and components for drones

The EU has officially identified 31 companies from Serbia, Turkey, UAE, Vietnam and Uzbekistan, which helped Russia circumvent sanctions. They are prohibited from trading in goods of secondary importance, except for spare parts and materials that can be used for military purposes.

Sanctions were also introduced against 75 physical and legal entities that may prevent the illegal export of cultural property from Crimea and the exploitation of Ukrainian agricultural resources.

Over 2,400 individuals and organizations are already under EU sanctions. They have been blocked from entering the European Union, their assets have been frozen, and their access to the financial system has been restricted.

After praising the new package, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen discussed further details with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In these words, the EU is already preparing the 18th exchange package to accommodate even tougher approaches. Zelensky voiced the need to put pressure on the Russian nafta fleet and financial schemes that would ensure the war, and noted that the exchange in energy and the banking sector is the most important for Kremlin.

Despite the sanctions, the Russian budget is already experiencing a serious deficit. Revenues from oil and gas fell by 17% in the region. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is reluctant to admit that the lack of income amounts to hundreds of billions of rubles. It turns out that behind the rock reserves the deficit in oil and gas supplies will amount to 2 trillion rubles, or perhaps less than a fifth of the planned expenses.

The key problem is the falling price for Urals naphtha, which costs less than $60 per barrel against a budget of $70. Until then, the ruble has depreciated, which reduces the profits of exporters. The reserves of the National Welfare Fund of the Russian Federation have fallen to a historical minimum - less than $40 billion.

In order to ease the pressure on the Russian nafta economy, the European Union is urging the G7 countries to reduce the border price for Russian nafta from $60 to $50 per barrel. This may become part of the offensive, 18th sanctions package, reports Reuters.

New sanctions will also affect pipelines, tankers, and financial institutions of the Russian Federation. The United States has already decided to make more moves further away, which will help bring the end of the war closer.

Monitoring oil supplies from Russia faces new challenges: there are more tankers than ever to transport Russian oil, but they are not transmitting their location, or they are submitting false data to the AIS system, an automated information system. how to use it to fasten ships.

In addition, the main obligations for the export of crude oil from the Russian Federation have changed significantly, according to Bloomberg analysis.

Nowadays, the most caution has developed: tankers are more likely to use different methods of capturing their activity - they know from systems at a critical moment or have a presence at geographically inaccessible points, near export sites terminals at the Baltic, Black seas and in the Arctic.

Just for show - 16 of the 20 vessels that were attracted to Primorska in the first 18 days of the war, simultaneously “hovered” on the Berezovyh Islands, which looks like misinformation. The situation is similar - at the same time, tankers that are engaged in transshipment of oil near Nakhodka and Zarubino are immediately subject to monitoring, while satellite images record their activity.

Such manipulations are often explained by the increase in the number of vessels subject to closing sanctions. Since Indian naphtha refiners have stated that they do not buy naphtha transported in circumvention of the sanctions, it is not reasonable, as far as their statements are put into practice.

Regardless of the difficulty of capturing routes, analysts can still track down the hidden supply chain through satellite imagery, port calls and long-line AIS analysis.

Between now and May 18, crude oil exports amounted to approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. In the year that ended on May 18, 32 tankers transported 23.79 million barrels, just shy of 24.39 million barrels last year.

With a decrease in physical obligations, the risk of naphtha exports has increased, resulting in a further increase in prices. In the period up to January 12, the won increased by 50 million dollars - to $1.28 billion. This increase is explained by the fact that the price of Urals exceeded $50 per barrel for the first time in three years. In the Baltic region the won decreased to $51.50, in the Black Sea - $52.20. Nafta ESPO at Dalekom Skhod rose in price to $57.20, and for India - to $62.90, according to data from Argus Media.

During the month to May 18, the export volume decreased by 1% to $1.26 billion.

Extending 28 days to 18 May, the expansion to Asia (including anonymous routes) increased to 3.12 million barrels per day - the maximum for the rest of the year. Of these, approximately 530 thousand. Barrels were now flown from ports to Port Said or the Suez Canal, another 80 thousand. - from an inexpressible direct statement.

Deliveries to Turecchini dropped to 290 thousand. Barels per day, or 30 thousand. less, less than before. These figures do not cover Kazakh nafta KEBCO, which is transported in transit through the Russian Federation and is not subject to EU sanctions.

After the start of the war, Kazakhstan began to clearly brand its naphtha in order to consolidate it as Russian.

Bloomberg emphasizes the transhipment of naphtha, which means that automatic signals from ships are turned off or disrupted—a tactic called “spoofing.” This allows us to recognize the fact that the two vessels were connected at the time of transfer to vantage. All data is verified based on responses from port agents and information from third-party services such as Kpler and Vortexa.

Vladislav Vlasyuk, the President of Ukraine’s approval of the sanctions policy, noting that sanctions may have a significant economic impact on Russia, especially on its defense industry.

International experts are determined to support the strengthening of sanctions against Russia, but are concerned about their effectiveness without coordination from the United States. The French Minister of External Affairs Jean-Noël Barrault emphasized that the EU's 17th package of sanctions is coordinated with the United States, indicating that Volodymyr Putin is the "single move" towards peace in Ukraine .

Experts also express their respect for the need to introduce second sanctions against the countries, which will help Russia circumvent the restrictions by crossing the “shadow fleet” for transporting oil.

Olena Marchenko, specially for Ukrainian Energy

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