In August of this year, Russia's revenues from oil exports fell to $15.3 billion. This is the lowest indicator since the first half of 2023. This is stated in the September study of KSE Institute Russian Oil Tracker analysts.

However, analysts point out that this drop is caused by the decline in global oil prices and not by the strengthening of sanctions. Stronger restrictions against shadow fleets and facilitators are needed. Although the UK has recently committed additional tankers, overall efforts to curb Russia's shadow fleet remain limited.

In August, the Russian shadow fleet accounted for 90% of Russian seaborne crude oil exports: 107 crude oil tankers left ports and 2 were involved in STS pumping, 87% of which were built more than 15 years ago. This underscores the need for more decisive action by coalition countries to limit crude oil operations.

Russia's dependence on Western maritime services remains low, with only 10% of its crude oil delivered by IG P&I insured tankers. Coverage varies by port: 17% from the Baltic ports, 16% from the Black Sea, 2% from the Pacific and none from the Arctic. Vessel markings are working, but they need to be increased - as of September 25, 2024, the US, the EU and the UK have imposed sanctions on 74 tankers for transporting Russian oil.

Russia has tested these measures, with 15 sanctioned tankers returning to service after long layoffs, while others remain withdrawn. There are also problems with meeting the price limit – Urals FOB Primorsk and Novorossiysk prices fell to $68 per barrel in August, but remained $8 above the EU/G7 limit. ICE Brent discounts narrowed to ~$10.5 per barrel, the lowest since the invasion.

As reported by "Ukrainian Energy", the Russian government predicts a decline in oil and gas revenues over the next three years due to lower energy prices and a softer tax regime for PJSC Gazprom.