The world is refocusing on nuclear energy in order to transition to "green" energy and improve energy security - and Ukraine will not be left behind. Such a statement was made by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, during the conference "Nuclear opportunities for the development of the country: wartime and postwar reconstruction", which was organized by NAEK "Energoatom".

The journalists of "Ukrainian Energy" learned about the place of Ukraine and its bitter enemy - Russia - in the development of atomic energy.

The world is in favor of nuclear energy

According to Grossi, in the future Ukraine will have one of the largest nuclear energy programs in Europe. Grossi reminded of Ukraine's support before the start of the war and assured that the aid will continue to arrive long after its end. In particular, the IAEA sent more than 140 support and assistance missions for Ukrainian power plants - ZANP, KhaNPP, RANPP, PANPP and ChNPP. And the European Union will provide about 3 million euros to ensure the work of IAEA missions.

The world's gradual development of nuclear energy received another boost when world leaders from more than 30 countries and the EU met at the first nuclear energy summit in Brussels. The landmark summit – the world's first high-level meeting devoted entirely to nuclear energy – follows the historic focus on nuclear power at the UN Climate Change Conference last December.

High-ranking representatives of several dozen countries emphasized the importance of using nuclear energy to achieve energy security, climate goals and promote sustainable development. The guarantee of long-term success was called an increase in funding, development of personnel potential and more active support of countries that are starting to create nuclear energy.

In their speeches, heads of state and other high-ranking representatives of countries talked about the state of nuclear energy in their countries and named important factors that will help meet the deadlines for the transition to environmentally clean energy, including technology-neutral approaches such as laws and regulations that do not favor one source of clean energy before another.

China is also a powerful player in the nuclear energy market - the world's largest producer of nuclear energy. There are 56 nuclear power units with a capacity of 58 GW in operation in the country, and 26 new reactors with a capacity of 30 GW are under construction.

A report on the development of China's nuclear energy emphasizes that the PRC is expected to overtake the United States and France to become the country with the world's largest "nuclear park" by 2030.

Liu Huaqin, director of the Eurasia Institute of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, notes that China has formed an independent and complete nuclear energy chain. According to the World Association of Nuclear Power Plant Operators, in 2023 China will be among the world leaders in nuclear power safety and operation, production efficiency, power generation management and other indicators. By 2030, the installed capacity of nuclear power plants in the country will reach 120 GW.

Russia's actions look interesting here. After all, back in the summer, the general director of the Russian state corporation "Rosatom" Oleksiy Likhachev reported to Vladimir Putin that "Rosatom" is building 39 nuclear power units abroad and 7 more inside the Russian Federation.

"The main global trend is the development of renewable energy sources, primarily solar and wind power plants. According to IEA estimates, global investments in RES last year reached $659 billion, which is $142 billion more than, for example, in 2021. Investments in nuclear energy are several times smaller - $63 billion in 2023 (+ $18 billion compared to 2021). However, the shock of the energy crisis caused by Russian gas blackmail and the war against Ukraine has forced many countries to revise their energy strategies and plans, becoming more open to the development of nuclear energy. Yes, they seek to protect themselves from crises due to the instability of prices for fossil fuels, as well as to quickly switch to so-called clean forms of energy. At the same time, for large economies that do not support the policy of the Russian Federation, it remains extremely important to reduce dependence on Russian nuclear fuel. So, in March of this year, the USA, Canada, France, Japan and Great Britain announced plans to attract about 4.2 billion dollars for the development of domestic nuclear fuel production capabilities," says Ihor Piddubny, an analyst at the KSE Institute.

Short list for "Rosatom"

On October 6, Kazakhstan held a referendum on the construction of a new nuclear power plant near Lake Balkhash (north of Almaty).

Before the plebiscite, the Kazakh authorities called on citizens to give their consent to the implementation of the project and, according to the CEC of the republic, they received it from the majority of voters. Now the state has to choose with whom to put this idea into practice - Rosatom is among the tender participants.

According to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the ideal option would be to involve "an international consortium of global companies with the most advanced technologies."

"Rosatom" appeared in the initial list of contractors along with China's CNNC, South Korea's KHNP and France's EDF. However, Rosatom was on this shortlist even before the start of the war in Ukraine, and now its chances of participating in the project are the lowest. The authorities of Kazakhstan do not want to face sanctions difficulties, since "Rosatom" is under sanctions without five minutes, even a partnership with it in the form of construction and further maintenance of the nuclear power plant will be toxic and associated with unnecessary costs.

It can be assumed that the Chinese contractor will have an advantage given the strong economic influence of the PRC on Kazakhstan, but the French may also compete for the contract. So they almost took a similar contract in Armenia.

The only thing that could distinguish Rosatom is huge discounts (and bribes to Kazakh officials). But it is not known whether this resource will be enough in the current situation to compensate for reputational and sanction risks. And there will be fewer and fewer profitable contracts with Rosatom for the construction of new nuclear power plants in the post-Soviet space.

"Akkuyu" as a means of influencing NATO

Currently, Rosatom is building the first Akkuyu NPP in Turkey in Mersin province. The station will consist of four power units with a capacity of 1,200 MW each. The cost of the NPP construction project is about 22 billion dollars. Earlier it was reported that Turkey is considering the construction projects of two more nuclear power plants - in the provinces of Sinop and Thrace.

At the same time, as noted in Rosatom, the financing of the construction is still entirely at the expense of the Russian side: about 70% - from the state corporation and about 30% - anchor budget financing.

State Corporation "Rosatom" is the majority shareholder of "Akkuyu nuclear" company, which undertook the design, construction, maintenance, operation and decommissioning of the plant. The construction of the Akkuyu NPP is the first project in the global nuclear industry implemented under the Build-Own-Operate model ("build-own-operate").

However, not everything is so simple. "Rosatom" sees certain obstacles to the implementation of the Akkuyu NPP construction project in Turkey from third countries.

"Development of the Akkuyu project is going well. It is not without problems, first of all the problems are created for us by third countries, limiting supplies, worsening mutual settlements, destroying logistics", - said the head of "Rosatom" Oleksiy Likhachev.

A little earlier, the Siemens company violated its contractual obligations regarding the supply of equipment to the Akkuyu NPP, negotiations with it did not yield results, and the equipment was found in countries friendly to Russia. Therefore, the dates for the start-up of the first unit of the Akkuyu NPP are still being specified.

In the construction contract, it was stated that in the future the NPP should remain mainly owned by Russia.

"The total share of Russian companies and agencies in the project cannot fall below 51 percent," the document reads.

Although it was initially announced that the remaining 49 percent of the shares would be sold to Turkish investors, this has not yet happened.

However, Turkey made a retaliatory move - and in the summer simply seized money from Rosatom. According to the head of the state corporation Oleksiy Lykhachev, "Americans" who "go between legal entities and banks" working with Rosatom are responsible for the seizure of funds.

Consequently, the implementation of the widely publicized nuclear power plant project in Turkey, worth $25 billion, was, as expected, under serious threat. For Russia, which is fully paying for this project, it is also a reputational expense that calls into question all the ambitions of Rosatom. Although Rosatom itself is not yet under Western restrictive measures, several of its subsidiaries are included in the sanctions lists. Among them are JSC "Atombud", which develops technologies for the installation of nuclear installations, and VPO "Tochmash", which produces centrifuges for uranium enrichment.

Last year, the inauguration of the first and four power units of the plant took place, the design capacity of which should provide 10% of Turkey's electricity needs. However, the physical start-up of the NPP is scheduled for next year, but now it will happen later at best.

Turkey today is seriously dependent on Russia for energy resources. In addition to the existing significant supplies to Gazprom, the construction of the NPP implies the doom of stable bilateral relations for at least 100 years. But given the problems and the reputation of the builder, Turkey risks becoming a country with nuclear energy not soon.

Experts believe that the choice of a contractor for the construction of a nuclear power plant is doomed to dependence on the construction company for almost a hundred years. After all, a nuclear power plant is not only a process of construction, start-up and operation, but also disposal. At the same time, the war in Ukraine severely undermined the trust in partners with Rosatom, and the materials and equipment for the construction of the nuclear power plant that got around the sanctions raise a lot of questions not only from energy experts, but also from the IAEA.

Therefore, the contracts for the construction of two more nuclear power plants in Turkey are very much in question.

The former head of the Directorate for Energy and Environmental Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Mithat Rende, believes that the main goal of Russia, which invests in energy supplies to Turkey, is to undermine solidarity in NATO, because Turkey is a member of the Alliance, and also to harm Turkish-American relations, which , seemed to be improving today.

Energy expert Ali Arif Akturk also emphasizes the strategic importance of the station for Russia. "The goal of the Russians is not just to invest in nuclear energy, but to invest in a NATO country," he says.

The location of the two NPPs is of strategic importance: the Akkuyu NPP is built on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, and the Sinop NPP will be built in the northernmost point of the country on the Black Sea coast. Akturk fears that Russia will be able to use its legal privileges in the future to prevent warships from entering these port cities in the future.

Heirs of the empire

The USSR carried out work on the construction of nuclear power plants in other countries since the early 1960s. In October 1966, the first such station was put into operation - in the city of Rheinsberg, GDR (now Germany; the station was closed in 1990). In the 1970s and early 1980s, industrial associations led the construction of nuclear power plants in Bulgaria, Finland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Cuba and other countries. However, in the early 1990s, many of these projects were discontinued or closed.

Therefore, "Rosatom" became the heir of the Soviet energy companies - today the activities of "Rosatom" structures are carried out - "Atombudexport", "Rusatom overseas", "Rusatom energo international", "Rusatom - international network" and others.

In addition to the construction of nuclear power plants, Russia exports nuclear fuel (the Russian Federation occupies 16% of the world market) and provides services in the field of natural uranium enrichment, engages in geological exploration and uranium mining abroad, the creation of nuclear research centers in various countries, etc. According to Rosatom, the total value of the portfolio of foreign orders in 2023 amounted to about 200 billion dollars.

"It is an extremely negative signal that European countries have significantly increased the import of Russian nuclear fuel - by 2023 it has more than doubled and brought almost 700 million euros to Rosatom, the company that occupies Europe's largest nuclear power plant (Zaporizhka NPP) The export of enriched uranium around the world brings a lot of money to the Russians - according to analysts, last year they earned about 2.7 billion dollars. Of course, this is very far from what the export of sanctioned oil brings to Russia. Let me remind you that according to KSE Institute estimates, the Russian Federation will earn at least $182 billion from oil exports this year. A significant part of which is directed to the Russian budget, and therefore will finance the continuation of the war against Ukraine. This means that the strengthening of sanctions against both the Russian oil sector and their nuclear energy industry is absolutely necessary. The Russian Federation should not receive colossal financial resources thanks to energy and should not strengthen its influence in various parts of the world through nuclear projects," says Ihor Piddubny.

Currently, the Russian concern is building nuclear power plants in countries such as Belarus, India, Egypt, China, Hungary, Iran and Bangladesh. Most of these countries are conditional "friends" of the Kremlin, such as Hungary, Belarus, India or China.

Therefore, Rosatom, along with other Russian companies, is a locomotive for the advancement of Russia's global strategic interests – and the civilized world already understands this.

"The Russian Federation has always considered energy as a geopolitical tool, they have never hidden it. An example of this is the years of EU gas dependence on the Russian Federation and, as a result, Russian blackmail, which began as early as 2021 and eventually led to an unprecedented price crisis in Europe. In the same way, a peaceful atom in the hands of the Russians aims at quite pragmatic and not very "peaceful" goals. Understanding that nuclear projects are unique and long-term, the Russian Federation is very willing to push Rosatom's services abroad, having dozens of representative offices around the world. Only last year, the holding signed new memorandums of cooperation with five countries. And for Rosatom's construction of a nuclear power plant in Hungary, 10 billion euros will come in the form of a loan from the Russian Federation, which was approved in July last year. Whether this adds independence to the Hungarian government in matters where the Russian Federation is interested remains rather a rhetorical question," Piddubny explains.