Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of French energy company TotalEnergies SE, said that Europe will be able to cope with the ban on Russian gas imports proposed by the European Commission starting in 2028. According to him, new export capacities for liquefied natural gas, which are being actively built in the United States and Qatar, will help ensure energy security. Bloomberg reported this.

“We will be able to guarantee stable gas supplies to Europe without involving Russian LNG in 2028 thanks to the capacities that are emerging in these two countries,” Pouyanne said.

“Ukrainian Energy” found out what prospects the EU has for getting rid of Russian liquefied gas.

Legal bypass

Pouyanne’s statement came against the backdrop of the European Union’s active efforts to abandon energy dependence on Russia, caused by its war against Ukraine. Although Russia is no longer the EU’s main gas supplier, it still supplies almost a fifth of European demand.

Pouyanne also expressed cautious optimism about the cost of fuel for consumers in France and across Europe, noting that there are currently sufficient supplies. He added that Saudi Arabia is actively acting to avoid a sharp increase in prices.

At the same time, the head of TotalEnergies expressed concern about geopolitical instability. Trade conflicts, initiated, according to him, by former US President Donald Trump, were particularly criticized. He stressed that such conflicts create additional uncertainty that negatively affects economic growth.

As reported by the Financial Times, the European Commission has found a way to circumvent a possible veto from Hungary and Slovakia by proposing to ban the conclusion of new contracts for the supply of Russian gas.

This is a legal scheme based on EU trade law. This means that restrictions can be passed by a majority vote, without the need for full consensus.

According to the summary of the relevant document, companies are planned to be immediately banned from signing new contracts for gas supplies from Russia. Short-term contracts must be completed by 2026, while long-term ones will remain in force until January 1, 2028.

Three officials familiar with the proposed measures told the publication that Hungary and Slovakia, as landlocked countries, would be given time until 2027 to gradually abandon existing contracts for importing Russian gas.

The proposals are still subject to change, but they complement the European Commission’s overall plan to completely abandon imports of Russian energy by 2027. Separately, an initiative is being considered to ban countries from using the Nord Stream gas pipeline as part of the next package of sanctions against Russia in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As stated in the document, the commission plans to invoke the provisions of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU, which provide for the priority of security of energy supply. In this context, the EU Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen stated that the goal is to ensure that no member state is threatened with a shortage of the resource and that prices remain stable.

Despite this, some importing countries remain concerned about possible legal risks, in particular that companies may be forced to compensate Russia for early termination of contracts.

Once the new rules are approved, companies will be required to provide customs authorities with detailed data on contracts to confirm that imports do not concern Russian gas. In addition, EU countries will have to develop plans for diversifying supplies.

According to the Ember think tank, in 2024 Italy remained the largest importer of Russian gas, followed by Hungary, France and Spain.

At the same time, Paris and Madrid note that a significant part of the supplied gas is re-exported to other EU member states.

The EU continues to finance the war through LNG

Pavel Chizak, regional director of the Ember think tank, harshly criticized the continued import of Russian gas by EU countries. In his opinion, the situation looks absurd - despite the war and political statements, the European Union is still buying gas from the aggressor state.

“It is a scandal that the European Union is still buying Russian gas. Instead of investing in real alternatives, such as renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency, member states are spending billions on expensive LNG capacities, which may ultimately turn out to be unnecessary,” Chizak said, as reported by Ember.

He also called for immediate and decisive action: “The EU must stop procrastinating and introduce clear legally binding mechanisms, not empty declarations. It is necessary to set specific deadlines for the complete rejection of Russian gas.”

According to Chizak, the key to truly freeing Europe from Russian energy dependence lies in setting price limits on LNG, banning spot market purchases, and clearly fulfilling commitments to completely stop gas imports from Russia by 2027.

“Without a decisive policy to limit the flow of Russian gas by member states, the EU risks only deepening its dependence in 2025 - as happened in 2024, when import volumes increased by 18%,” the expert added.

Ember emphasizes that such dependence carries serious risks - price instability, the possibility of energy blackmail by the Kremlin, and undermining European support for Ukraine.

Ember also warns that even expanding cooperation with gas suppliers such as Norway or the United States - which are currently the largest suppliers to the EU - may run counter to long-term goals. This approach could lead to higher prices for both households and industry.

Analysts insist that in order to achieve energy security and maintain the availability of resources, the European Union must more actively reduce its dependence on gas. This is clearly stated in the Action Plan on Affordable Energy, which is a strategic guideline for EU energy policy.

Against this background, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, as reported by two European diplomats, called on the European Commission to withdraw the initiative. He explained his position by the additional risks associated with the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran and the impact of this factor on global energy markets.

Currently, Europe continues to purchase Russian liquefied gas, which strengthens the Kremlin's position in the EU energy market. This is not only a source of profit to finance the war against Ukraine, but also a potential lever of influence on European politics. The expansion of Russian LNG poses new threats to both the security and geopolitical independence of the European Union. The question remains – will the EU be able to change its energy policy in time?

Record LNG imports from Russia

Despite the gradual rejection of Russian pipeline gas, the European Union’s dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia continues to grow – and this is a serious concern both in Kyiv and among some European politicians. According to the Financial Times, in 2024 the EU countries imported a record 22 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG – 19% more than in the previous year. At the same time, pipeline gas supplies from the Russian Federation decreased to 32.1 billion cubic meters.

Russia accounts for more than 20% of the LNG market in Europe. The main volumes come from Novatek’s plants – Yamal LNG and Cryogas Vysotsk. Its beneficiaries are businessmen close to the Kremlin, Gennady Timchenko and Leonid Mikhelson. Gazprom is also entering the market with the Sakhalin-2 and Gazprom LNG Portovaya projects.

Mikhail Gonchar, president of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, noted that although Novatek has tax breaks and does not transfer significant amounts to the Russian budget, LNG exports have a political goal - control over the share of the European market and strengthening influence on the EU and Ukraine.

This is facilitated by the pro-Russian lobby in Europe - in particular in Hungary, Slovakia and Austria. Due to the position of the government of Viktor Orban, the EU is limited to symbolic measures regarding the Russian energy sector - in contrast to full-fledged sanctions, which should apply to both nuclear energy and gas. The reduction in pipeline supplies was, in fact, Russia's own initiative - in 2022, the Kremlin cut supplies in an attempt to force the West to make concessions.

According to The Financial Times, Novatek Deputy Chairman Denis Solovyov recently tried to hold negotiations in Brussels, and a month earlier in Washington. The goal is to influence the sanctions process on LNG. However, his attempt in the US was unsuccessful.

Kyiv was also alarmed by information that voices began to be heard in the EU in favor of resuming Russian gas supplies - allegedly to lower prices and encourage Moscow to engage in peace talks. Although the official position of the European Commission does not provide for a direct connection between gas agreements and a peaceful settlement, some officials in Germany and Hungary support such an initiative.

Against this background, initiatives to limit imports of Russian LNG are being blocked by some EU member states. As Politico reminds us, in June 2023, the European Union introduced the 14th package of sanctions, banning the transshipment of Russian LNG through European ports to third countries.

But the 16th package does not provide for a complete ban on LNG imports from Russia - only a ban on supplies to terminals not connected to the EU's general gas supply network.

Director of the Energy Research Center Oleksandr Kharchenko believes this approach is not effective enough. According to him, the sanctions will not affect the main volumes of Russian LNG. Mykhailo Honchar also adds that Spain and Portugal remain in an exceptional position, whose terminals are not physically integrated into the EU energy system, and therefore will be blocked from receiving methane tankers from Russia.

Analysts insist that not only bans on the entry of Russian LNG tankers, but also personal sanctions against Novatek and its management would be effective. Especially considering that methane tankers are very specific and more expensive than oil tankers, which complicates their use in the "shadow fleet".

Pressure may also increase from the US. Donald Trump has already set the EU a condition - to import large volumes of American energy resources, otherwise - they will face tariffs. This position of Washington, as Bloomberg writes, is already affecting the determination of European leaders - Viktor Orban has revised his line of behavior after a corresponding signal from across the ocean.

US sanctions have already affected a number of Gazprom and Novatek projects - in particular, in the Baltic and in the Arctic. Factories under construction, as well as shipbuilding contracts with South Korea, have suffered. According to Bloomberg, seven companies linked to Novatek's LNG projects were sanctioned in the summer of 2024 alone.

And while the EU currently lacks determination, more and more officials are realizing the need for a complete embargo on Russian LNG. This was hinted at back in the fall by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. A similar position was discussed by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaia Kallas and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

For now, the situation remains alarming - the EU continues to import Russian LNG, and the Kremlin uses this as leverage. Under such conditions, Europe's energy independence remains nothing more than a political declaration.

The Kremlin's New Course

Russia is actively trying to resume exports of liquefied natural gas, despite Western sanctions, in particular those imposed by the US last year against the Arctic LNG 2 project. According to Bloomberg, Moscow has built a fleet of tankers capable of operating in harsh Arctic conditions and is expanding it to circumvent restrictions and find new markets.

For the first time since October, one of Russia’s LNG carriers has docked at Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 plant, according to satellite monitoring and ship tracking data analyzed by Bloomberg. The facility was supposed to be a key element in the Kremlin’s plans to triple LNG exports by 2030. But the plant has been idle for a long time because Russia could not find buyers for its gas despite sanctions.

After cutting pipeline gas exports to Europe due to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has shifted its focus to seaborne deliveries. According to analysts, at least 13 vessels are involved in servicing Arctic LNG 2, some of which have changed operators repeatedly to hide the ultimate beneficiaries. Among them is the Arc4-class tanker Iris, which is already moored near the plant, and three more similar vessels are waiting in the Barents Sea. Two are in China for repairs, two more are idle in the Gulf of Finland, and one is near a storage facility in the Russian Far East.

Between August and October 2024, eight batches of gas were released from the Arctic LNG 2, but none of them reached a foreign port. The entire volume was unloaded at Russian storage facilities in the Barents Sea and the Far East. Production temporarily stopped in the fall due to ice formation around the storage facilities, which complicated delivery. According to Igor Tonkovidov, the general director of Sovcomflot, the first Russian ice-class LNG tanker of domestic production may enter service in the second half of 2025, subject to successful completion of tests.

Bloomberg also notes that over the past year, Russian officials have been actively negotiating with potential buyers in China and India. However, it is not yet known whether contracts have been concluded. According to Malte Gumpert of the US Arctic Institute, the prospects for sales are extremely uncertain.

“China remains the most likely buyer, but demand there has been falling for eight consecutive months. The fact that more than a million cubic meters of LNG from last year are still stored in floating storage facilities indicates difficulties with implementation,” he noted.

Western partners continue to closely monitor Russia’s actions. Representative of the Atlantic Council, former US diplomat Jeffrey Pyatt stressed: “The moment has come for additional pressure on Russia’s energy revenues.” He also emphasized that the US should continue its sanctions policy against Novatek, since Europe has already expressed its intention to completely abandon imports of Russian gas. “This only reinforces the need to maintain pressure,” Pyatt said.

Olena Marchenko, specially for "Ukrainian Energy"