The Russians can strike open switchgear on the territory of nuclear plants. And also - to direct missiles at electrical substations around the nuclear power plant. Both types of attacks are extremely dangerous, the Ukrainian government warned. Ukraine called on the international community to put pressure on Russia to force it to abandon this idea. The Kremlin wants to disconnect Ukrainian nuclear power plants from the power grid and thereby provoke a blackout in the country.

What are the Russians up to?

The Kremlin is preparing strikes on Ukrainian nuclear plants. Such a statement was made by several high-ranking Ukrainian officials at once. According to the information of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiga, the main target for the Russians may be open distribution devices located directly on the territory of the NPP. The official noted: damage to such facilities poses a direct threat to nuclear safety. On the eve of winter, another target for Russia may be the substations around the nuclear power plant. These facilities are responsible for the transmission of electricity from nuclear power plants to the energy network of Ukraine.

"Russia is the only country that seized a nuclear power plant in Europe, blackmailing the world. The Ukrainian Peace Formula contains a clause on ensuring radiation and nuclear safety. We call on all international organizations and states that respect the UN Charter to prevent the scenario of a terrorist country," he emphasized Andriy Sybiga.

During the OSCE meeting, the Russian delegation boasted that it would be enough to strike only five energy facilities to cause a total blackout in Ukraine.

The official added: information that Russia is preparing strikes on our nuclear power plants was also confirmed by the Ukrainian special services. The president gave details. Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted: the Russians are photographing the territories of Ukrainian nuclear power plants in detail with the help of Chinese satellites.

"They are preparing to attack our three nuclear power plants. We have this information and evidence. If Russia is ready to go this far, it means that none of what you value matters to Moscow," the president said.

Russia, it seems, is not trying to hide its criminal plans. And, as you might expect, openly flouts international law and humanitarian law. During the OSCE meeting, the Russian delegation boasted that it would be enough to strike only five energy facilities to cause a total blackout in Ukraine. Acting permanent representative of Ukraine to international organizations in Vienna, Victoria Kuvshinnikova, told about such statements of the enemy.

"Now it became clearer to us what the Russian representative was talking about. Colleagues, isn't this a confession of a war criminal? Isn't it time for the OSCE to hold Russian representatives accountable for their threats, if there is still a point in putting up with Russia's unjustified presence here?", the diplomat noted.

Razumkov Center analysts are sure that Russia will not dare to attack nuclear reactors. There is no sense in this, because it is practically impossible to destroy these objects due to their construction, according to experts. But the Kremlin can aim at open distribution devices. In the event of an impact, a clear algorithm of actions will start and the electronics will work. The power unit of the NPP will automatically go into hot shutdown mode. But much more serious is the attack on distribution substations, which are located outside the territory of nuclear plants and connect them to the country's energy network.

"Under such an influence, uncontrolled processes can occur for 10 seconds until the NPP automation works. And this is already a very dangerous scenario that can even lead to a nuclear incident. In addition, Russia is simultaneously conducting a disinformation campaign that nuclear power plants in Ukraine are allegedly outdated, have bad equipment - it's all a lie," explained the energy expert, executive director of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI".

Who can prevent Russian strikes?

The world community is beginning to understand the reality of the threat. Russia can strike the Rivne and Khmelnytsky nuclear plants. This was stated by the President of Poland. However, Andrzej Duda did not say how to prevent such actions of the Russians.

Instead, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has such a mechanism. The organization stated that it is ready to form monitoring missions for substations around the NPP. Negotiations with the Ukrainian government are ongoing, the format of the mission is still being agreed upon. The main thing is not known for sure yet: whether IAEA specialists will be permanently at the substation.

"There are already the first results. Work in this direction is being carried out quite actively," Deputy Minister of Energy Mykola Kolisnyk briefly told about the negotiation process.

IAEA specialists have already visited one of the substations that connects the NPP to the energy network of Ukraine. This facility was recently attacked by Russia. The State Inspection of Nuclear Regulation of Ukraine (State Nuclear Regulation) noted that this visit marked the beginning of the implementation of a joint project with the IAEA. International experts documented the damage to the substation, but no extensive public statements were made. The International Atomic Energy Agency only promised to expand aid to Ukraine.

The best protection of the open switchgear is the Patriot air defense system and two Cheetah anti-aircraft guns...

"A reliable external power supply is essential to ensure the safety of NPPs. Attacks on the power grid pose significant challenges to NPP safety due to the rapid transients they cause in the external power source. These transients are characterized by sudden and severe fluctuations in the power supply, requiring immediate and accurate reactions on the part of NPP operators, and therefore should be the subject of additional attention of the IAEA," said the head of the State Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority Oleg Korikov.

The Russians continue to make provocations. Energoatom was informed that more than 100 enemy drones and missiles have already flown near Ukrainian nuclear power plants, and this in just a few weeks. The company noted that no other state in the world, except the Russian Federation, had created such threats to nuclear safety. All incidents were reported to international organizations. One of the latest cases was recorded on September 25. Then a Russian kamikaze drone flew at a critically low altitude over the industrial site of the Rivne NPP.

We will remind that the Russian Federation has already struck directly at the territory of the NPP. It happened on September 19, 2022. The rocket fell 300 meters from the nuclear reactor of the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant, reported in "Energoatom". The explosion hit nearby buildings, shattering windows. The nuclear power plant was not critically damaged. The radiation level was normal, the reactors did not stop working, and none of the workers were injured. But, of course, it was an unprecedented event, because in the history of mankind there had never been shelling of the territory of the NPP.

"If Russia is ready to strike critical substations that supply electricity from nuclear power plants, or to strike nuclear power plants, then this is already out of bounds, this rhetoric about the use of nuclear weapons. And the consequences will be for the whole world. I really hope that international support and pressure from the entire civilized world will work and the Russians will refrain from implementing their plans, because in their goal of achieving a complete blackout in Ukraine, they are actually losing their common sense regarding nuclear weapons and radiation safety," the Minister of Energy said Herman Galushchenko of Ukraine.

Specialists of the military portal Defense express noted: if Russia dares to attack nuclear facilities, then such an attack will be very concentrated - using different types of missiles and drones simultaneously. Defense express is sure that the total number of weapons can be 200-300 units. According to experts, the Russians will initially use a large number of kamikaze drones to try to overload our air defenses. And then the enemy will attack with rockets, among other things, with "daggers". However, the Kremlin has used such a scheme many times, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already dealt with such tactics.

"RZP is a fairly large area, about a hectare. Transformers and other equipment are located on it, which connects the nuclear plant to the energy system of Ukraine. In my opinion, it is quite difficult to reliably protect it. You can implement some local measures, but the best protection of an open distributor is anti-aircraft complex "Patriot" and two anti-aircraft installations "Chepard" nearby. Dmytro Humeniuk, an expert of the State Scientific and Technical Center for Nuclear and Radiation Safety of Ukraine, says this.

Ukraine is ready for new Russian tactics

In total, there are four nuclear power plants in Ukraine. Unfortunately, one of them, the Zaporizhzhya NPP, has been under temporary occupation since 2022 and does not produce electricity for the state. Three more stations - Khmelnitska, Yuzhnoukrainska and Rivneska - are operating as usual. The planned repair campaign at these NPPs is also coming to an end.

"Seven NPP power units are operating in the energy system of Ukraine, which are located in unoccupied territories. Two NPP power units are undergoing scheduled repairs, one of which will be connected to the grid already at the beginning of the week." This was said by former Minister of Energy of Ukraine Olha Buslavets.

Nuclear plants are the basis of the Ukrainian energy network. The share of nuclear power plants in the production of electricity in Ukraine already reaches a record 60-70%, depending on the level of consumption. With other types of generation, the situation is much more complicated. 80% of TPPs were damaged and destroyed, some of them will be able to be repaired by winter, but the government does not publish the exact figures for security reasons. The Russians also attacked the hydro-generation plant, which also caused considerable damage. Electricity generation by solar stations is approaching the annual minimum, so the state will not be able to rely on them in winter.

"At the nuclear generation, the repair campaign is coming to an end. I think that in November we will already have full capacity - 7.7 GW. We can compare this figure with the maximum consumption last winter. It is 18 GW. We understand that we still need to collect." DiXi Group energy security expert Olena Lapenko told about it.

That is why the Russians are trying to disconnect the Ukrainian nuclear power plant from the power grid. And as it gets colder, more such attempts should be expected.

The electricity transmission system is already adapted to attacks, their consequences are eliminated within a few hours. And only large-scale attacks, such as the one on August 26, require a longer recovery...

On August 26, Russia shelled the substations around the nuclear power plant. It was the largest mass attack since the start of the full-scale invasion, when the Russians used 236 missiles and drones. Enemies tried to destroy 16 Ukrenergo substations at once. As a result of the attacks, 4 power units of the NPP were immediately stopped, which became the reason for new strict stoppage schedules.

"Practically every day there are attacks on energy facilities. And this must be understood. Another thing is that the transmission system is already adapted to attacks, that their consequences are eliminated within a few hours. And only large-scale attacks, such as the one on August 26, require longer recovery. 10-12 days after such an attack, in my opinion, is very positive," said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center.

So, even using more than 200 missiles and drones at the same time, Russia did not achieve its goal and did not plunge Ukraine into total darkness. And it only caused the introduction of shutdown schedules for a short period of time. Ukrainian air defense forces demonstrate significant results in shooting down enemy targets. Instead, energy companies found a way to significantly speed up repairs on damaged facilities.

"The operation of the Ukrainian energy system and the size of the capacity deficit, and therefore the scale of the introduction of electricity schedules, depend significantly on nuclear energy. The ability to protect this type of generation will depend significantly on how we survive the winter," - Andrian Prokip, an energy expert at the Ukrainian Future Institute, said.

However, the Russians are also changing their tactics. Let's say they started using rockets with cluster warheads. This means that the place of attack must first be inspected by sappers, and only then the repairmen can start work. At the same time, cluster munitions cause much more damage to equipment, which slows down the recovery of objects. In such conditions, the reaction and actions of Ukraine's Western partners are important. Starting with the accelerated strengthening of Ukrainian air defense, ending with pressure on Russia to prevent attacks on nuclear facilities.

Serhiy Barbu, specially for "Ukrainian Energy"